3 Tropical Waves to Drench Yucatán This Week

Three tropical waves are expected to cross Yucatán during the first week of September, building toward the weekend and raising the risk of street flooding in low-lying areas, according to meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís of Meteored México.

The timing lines up with the Atlantic’s busiest stretch of the year. The season’s climatological peak falls on Sept. 10, when storm activity is historically at its highest. But 2026 has been unusually quiet by that measure: only three named storms — Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal — had formed as of late August, with no hurricanes yet. That’s below the recent 10-year average pace, and forecasters point to a strengthening El Niño, which tends to increase wind shear and choke off storm development in the Atlantic. NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook still calls for a below-normal year, with 7 to 13 named storms total.

The Pacific side of Mexico has seen the opposite. That same El Niño has warmed Pacific waters to record levels, and the eastern Pacific hurricane season has already produced 11 named storms — a pace usually not reached until mid-September. None of that activity threatens Yucatán directly, since the peninsula sits on the Atlantic side, but it’s a reminder that a slow Atlantic season doesn’t mean a slow year everywhere.

For Yucatán, the week ahead still looks more like typical early-September weather than anything tied to a named storm. Monday brought scattered afternoon showers, along with high heat and humidity typical of the season. That changes Tuesday, when the first tropical wave arrives. Palma Solís said to expect moderate to strong rain, with totals of 25 to 50 millimeters (roughly 1 to 2 inches) in some areas, covering about 60% of the state.

A second wave follows Thursday, potentially bringing rain of similar or slightly greater intensity spread more widely across Yucatán, with showers continuing into Friday as the system’s remnants linger.

The third wave is the one to watch. Still moving across the Atlantic, it’s forecast to reach Yucatán Saturday and could produce the week’s heaviest rain — isolated totals of 75 to 100 millimeters (about 3 to 4 inches) over 60% to 80% of the state. Palma Solís said that raises the risk of ponding and, in some spots, more serious flooding, especially where drainage is already weak.

Coastal areas should see lighter, more scattered showers through Friday, with a better chance of widespread, heavier rain moving in over the weekend. Anyone with plans to fish, boat or spend time at the beach should watch marine forecasts as Saturday approaches.

Yucatán came through last year’s 2025 hurricane season largely unscathed, and this year’s slow Atlantic start offers some reassurance. Still, forecasters note that even in quiet seasons, a large share of tropical activity tends to happen after Sept. 10 — so Mérida’s flood-prone neighborhoods aren’t out of the woods yet.

Fast Facts

• First tropical wave arrives Tuesday, Sept. 1
• Second wave expected Thursday, Sept. 3, with rain lingering into Friday
• Third and strongest wave arrives Saturday, Sept. 5
• Heaviest rainfall could reach 75-100 mm (3-4 inches) in some areas
• Atlantic hurricane season peaks Sept. 10; only 3 named storms so far in 2026, well below average
• Eastern Pacific season, by contrast, has already seen 11 named storms this year

With reporting from Diario de Yucatán