As Beryl Moves On, So Does Yucatán

Hurricane Beryl apparently didn’t watch the Weather Channel or follow Meteorología Yucatán after landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday.
It’s Saturday, and we’re peeling the protective tapes off our intact windows. We are loading the sandbags back on the truck and saving our still-pristine plywood for the next major storm.
We saw Beryl’s deadly power in the Caribbean, and weather charts depicting the unprecedented (to use the Weather Channel’s words) system heading our way sent shockwaves.
Residents of Mérida were assured that the hurricane would weaken to a tropical storm by the time it hit the capital. That much was true. But it barely rained, and winds projected up to 70 mph, but it never passed 14.
The state’s alert system went from yellow to orange to red in the space of 24 hours. Nervous shoppers raided the Home Depots for plywood and duct tape. The federal electric utility sent CFE cherry-picker trucks from as far away as el Estado de México and Morelos. At least six inches of rainfall was to be dumped on the region.
The hurricane’s projected path wavered, heading south, then north. But even communities such as Dzemul, which are directly in Beryl’s path, reported little impact.
Power went off in many communities, and there was some relatively minor damage — tree damage and localized flooding — but no fatalities were reported.

This puts our ability to predict hurricanes accurately under scrutiny. According to its website, the National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts the Atlantic storm season with “70% accuracy.” The NHC remains a trusted source for weather forecasts.
The Forecast: Not a Crystal Ball
While the accuracy of the forecast for Hurricane Beryl may have been imperfect, it’s important to remember that predicting the path and intensity of a hurricane is a complex and challenging task. Meteorologists use various tools and models to create forecasts, but inherent uncertainties are always involved. A forecast is a valuable tool that can help communities prepare for the worst, but it should not be viewed as a crystal ball. In recent years, advancements in technology and modeling have led to significant improvements in hurricane track forecasting, but predicting the storm’s intensity remains challenging.

As Beryl continues on its destructive path, the accuracy of its forecasts reminds us of the challenges inherent in weather prediction. While the storm may not have lived up to its initial hype, it still caused significant damage and disruption to the Yucatan Peninsula.
As the storm heads towards the Texas coast, residents are urged to heed the warnings and take necessary precautions, as even a weakened hurricane can still pose a significant threat. Furthermore, this event emphasizes the need for continued research and development in hurricane forecasting and effective communication of uncertainty in predictions to the public.
Hurricane Beryl has claimed the lives of at least 11 people. Three deaths were reported in Grenada and Carriacou, with another fatality in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Three more deaths occurred in northern Venezuela, where four people are still missing. Additionally, sources indicate that there may have been additional deaths in other Caribbean islands affected by the storm.
Texas Coast Braces for Impact
Tropical Storm Beryl has broken apart but is churning through the Gulf of Mexico, poised to regain hurricane strength — or maybe not. First thought to be headed toward northeast Mexico, it now appears to be landing on the Texas coastline early Monday morning. Computer models disagree about its potential strength.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has activated the State Operations Center and directed the Texas Division of Emergency Management to issue advisories and coordinate response efforts. Coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to storm surges, heavy rainfall, and flooding, and residents are being urged to stay informed and follow evacuation orders if necessary.
And again, the storm’s track could shift, and its intensity could fluctuate, making preparedness and adaptability crucial.
Additional Resources
- National Hurricane Center: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
- Texas Division of Emergency Management: https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tdem-to-issue-hurricane-beryl-advisory-notice-for-texas-emergency-management-council

Lee Steele is the founding director of Mérida-based Roof Cat Media S de RL de CV and has published Yucatán Magazine and other titles since 2012. He was Hearst Connecticut’s Sunday Magazine creative director and worked in New York City for various magazine publishers, including Condé Nast and Primedia, for over 20 years.