Can the Tren Maya Turn Its Fortunes Around With This New Plan?

It’s no secret that the Tren Maya has not exactly been the soaring success the government and Secretariat of National Defense (which operates it) had been hoping. 

Government data projects a loss of roughly MX$5.8 billion / US$314 million during the first half of 2025 alone. This deficit is due to lower-than-projected ticket sales and increasing operational costs. 

“In almost every case, the Tren Maya is simply not feasible for locals or tourists. Almost all stations are far away from their actual urban or tourism destinations, usually requiring taking a bus for the last leg; not to mention that the rail system has become notorious for its lack of reliability,” said Eugenio Derbez, a well-known actor and vocal critic of the Tren Maya. 

But the Tren Maya, or Maya Train, shows no sign of giving up as it charts a course for the future, with new government plans revealing a vision that extends far beyond tourism. The railway, managed by the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA), aims to become a major economic engine for the southeastern region, attracting 4 million passengers annually by 2030. This surge in ridership is expected to fully cover the train’s operational costs while fueling a significant economic windfall for local communities.

Officials cite this optimism as grounded in a nationwide resurgence in rail travel. Between 2022 and 2024, passenger numbers on Mexico’s railways jumped from 41 million to over 51.5 million. That said, during this same period, the Tren Maya itself accounted for fewer than 700,000 passengers in 2024.

Getting Back on Track

Reversing the fortunes of the Tren Maya doesn’t stop with passengers. A cornerstone of the plan is launching a dedicated freight service designed to revolutionize commerce in the region. By moving goods, such as agricultural products, more efficiently, the Sheinbaum government aims to transport around 4.7 million tons of cargo annually by 2030. This is poised to unlock new opportunities for agro-industrial and commercial growth across the states it traverses.

To make this a reality, a significant infrastructure expansion will be necessary. The construction plans to carry out the expansion in two key stages. The first, from 2025-2026, will see the rise of multimodal terminals in Cancún, Progreso, and Palenque, alongside a key cargo hub in Poxilá. The following year will focus on building additional cargo yards in towns like Valladolid, Escárcega, and Chetumal, weaving a comprehensive logistics network into the region’s fabric.

The goal set for 2030 is a fully integrated transportation system. With a full fleet of 42 trains, the Tren Maya aims to be more than just a tourist attraction; it aspires to be a daily, dependable travel option for residents. It’s designed to connect seamlessly with airports, ports, and other rail lines, offering a safe, accessible, and sustainable alternative for getting around.

Underpinning this massive project is a commitment to doing things differently. The strategy is built on three pillars: achieving financial independence through efficient operations, guaranteeing a high-quality and safe passenger experience, and upholding a deep responsibility to the social and environmental fabric of the region. 

This means actively protecting 18 Natural Protected Areas, running over 200 environmental programs, and ensuring that the development fosters social cohesion, respects Indigenous rights, and brings tangible benefits like improved education and reduced poverty to the Mayan communities it serves.

Looking further ahead, the dream for 2050 is to see the Tren Maya fully integrated with the Interoceanic Corridor, positioning southeastern Mexico as a new continental logistics hub and a global sustainable and equitable development model.

Environmental Costs

Along with downplaying the Tren Maya’s economic losses, officials have also refused to acknowledge the project’s environmental impacts and lack of transparency regarding construction procedures.

After years of official denial and reprimanding the press for spreading misinformation, the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources of Mexico has finally admitted that damage has been done. Still, only about eight caves and cenotes were damaged during the construction of the Maya Train.

“We are very aware that in Section 5, there has been damage to eight caverns, and the signs are visible. We have been working to carry out cleanup work at the Maya Train site; we are present and working,” said Secretary of the Environment, Alicia Bárcena.

This admission comes in response to numerous complaints from various environmental organizations, even before this section was built. This is the first time a government official has admitted any ecological damage caused by the Tren Maya.